Friday, May 24, 2013

check in Aug 2013 if gold went to 1500 based on this article.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/gold-easing-idINDEE94N0AJ20130524

"That bodes ill for gold. From a technical perspective it remains vulnerable to further losses, with analysts pointing up a potential retracement to $1,150-1,100 as its rally unwinds. Confidence in the recovery, while fragile, is in large part responsible."



This article was written in May 2013.

Regards,
Shashi

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Calculating Trend and Forecast using Google Spreadsheet - on some sample data.

Let's say I want to forecast some things based on the current data.

Be it - price of a certain stock , or property value, or calculate the appreciation and depreciation of a certain market segment - then I want to calculate the trend or a forecast data.

This is where I thought I will use Google Spreadsheet's capability and check if I could do some forecasting .

Below are 2 columns A2..4 and B2..4 with some sample data, and if A5 is having some variable - what would the corresponding data in B look like.

See.. if you can follow this examples - one uses the forecast() function, and another uses the trend() function - and both are supported functions of Google Spreadsheets.

While experimenting - be careful of the semicolons.
Notice that in both cases - if A5 is 5, B5 by calculation will be twice as A5 ( which is right -if you look at history data in the above columns)
Likewise, if A6 if 5, then B6 will be 10 as well - by the calculation( which is right again- if you look at the history )




Here I had enter the  A6=5, sit on B6 and enter the formula.




Calculating forecast for same data above. ( except the arguments are different )
My last data I entered is on A5, based on that - I want to see what happens in B5 - so sit in B5 and enter the formula below
=Forecast ( A5 = last data;       go from B2 to 4 ;                      and also from A2 to 4 )





More examples.
 This one is simple - I just want to calculate the forecast if the B1, to B4 is 2,4,6,8
and A1, to A4 is 1 , 2,  3 and 4.
I want to see the 10 being calculated automatically using the Forecast.
Apparently it does.

Formula is sitting on B5   =forecast( A5;B1:B4; A1:A4)


Now, I want to try  1,2,4,8, and check if it will come up 16 i.e exponents.

1+1 = 2
2+2 = 4
4+4 = 8
8+8 = 16

This does not work ! ( in other words, exponents don't work.)

















Now, a classic case of - let's say some marks obtained by students are
5, 7, 9, and 11

what is the next number ?it must  be 13 ( this works - as it is not exponents )

Does , 5, 5, 5, and 5 work ?


5, 4,3,2  ( also works - I get a '1' ) in B5

What don't work - Multiples  and Exponents

1,
2,
4
8 - will get me 9.5