How AAP lost the traction

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/The-underage-optimist/entry/politics-and-its-many-shades-of-grey

You spot something good in a politician you reward him or her with a vote. You spot something bad you give your vote to somebody else. What if that somebody else is somewhat good and somewhat bad? What do you do? How do you choose between the various shades of grey?

The popular way to handle this is called the 'repaint'. You make a choice, based on your preferences. Then, you re-paint your party as white and call everyone else black. Whenever there's a discussion on the strengths and weaknesses, you side with your club and call everyone else names. If you like Modi, call everyone else incompetent and pseudo-secular. Like Congress? Call everyone else communal. Like AAP? Call everyone else anything — corrupt, communal, biased, paid — because, well, AAP is perfect.

Really makes for a great thriving democracy, doesn't it?

Instead of applying our minds to the task of choosing between shades of grey, we think we are being good citizens if we repaint our choice.

Why do we do this? The main reason is human beings get extremely uncomfortable with uncertainty. In our personal life too, we find it easier to slot people as good or bad. No human being is completely good or totally bad. A good person may do something wrong in a lapse of judgment or given the circumstances. In the same way, there are no pure evil people on this earth.

How people operate, which mirrors how politics and political parties operate, is on incentives. If you incentivize goodness, you will find the person or the politician turning good. Provide an incentive to do something bad, and people will do the same. If we want change in the country, we have to understand human psychology and mirror it in our political systems. Screaming oneself hoarse about what is wrong, organizing protests, trying to shame somebody big or quitting if things don't go your way is going to have a limited effect.

Yes, I am talking about AAP. The party raised the hopes of a large number of Indians, but quickly dashed them. They did help identify a great problem — corruption — but the means used to fix the problem were superficial. Sometimes, they were even in conflict with other important moral values in a society such as decorum, stability, respect for rules and patience. No matter how deep and genuine your pain, society seldom allows violation of law, order and process to fix it on a regular basis.

If AAP had taken the path of politics versus activism, why didn't they wait until they had enough political power to make the changes they want? What was the big hurry?

The other issue with AAP was the complete lack of understanding of how wealth is created, the importance of stakeholders other than voters in a thriving democracy hungry for growth. One fails to understand what made them take such an extreme leftist attitude, when a big portion of their support base was middle class youth who want private sector opportunities more than almost anything else.

Does AAP have a problem? Yes indeed it does. I maintain a personal tracker of political mood on my Facebook fanpage (admittedly a skewed higher-socioeconomic demographic), where I ask people their preferred party for Lok Sabha. Last week, AAP clocked 21% (BJP 75%, Cong 4%), compared to AAP at 36% (BJP 60%, Cong 4%) early January. AAP has lost over 40% of its base on social media in less than two months.

If AAP indeed wants to be a changemaker, it has to understand human psychology. Others aren't black. They are not white. Of course, this applies to BJP and Congress too, but AAP wants to be the change, isn't it?

AAP is honest and we need it around. However, it has shown a lack of patience, compromised on many important societal values, and doesn't seem to have understood the gravity of restoring economic growth.

Modi has creative ideas and experience. He thinks in a way that can make India wealthy. However, we have to ensure it doesn't get too authoritarian under him, personal freedoms are respected, certain communities don't feel insecure, and critics feel free to criticize anything he does wrong. Rahul wants to change things, but he seems to have lesser clout in the Congress than what most people think.

All political parties in India are a mixed, grey bag. They are this way because we Indians are a mixed grey bag. Let us choose one, but never let them feel they are perfect. Let us reject another, but never let them feel they are entirely useless. Grey is tough to handle. But grey is life.

 

Regards,
Shashi

Nice article in ToI- by gur Charan das.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/men-and-ideas/entry/elect_to_transform_india_with_eight_big_ideas



The world is divided between optimists and pessimists. Optimists believe that if the government invests in infrastructure, removes barriers facing entrepreneurs, jobs will multiply, the economy will grow and the country will gradually turn middle-class. Pessimists worry about problems — inequality, crony capitalism, degrading environment, etc. The problems are real but optimists focus on opportunities and lead nations to success. Let's hope an optimist is elected in 2014 after a decade of UPA's pessimism, and here are eight big ideas to help him/her restore India to health. 

First, bring urgency to growth, rubbishing the false trade-off between growth and equity, which is the destructive legacy of the Left under UPA-I and of the national advisory council under UPA-II. To this end, give priority to investment in power and roads. 

Second, eliminate the nearly 70 clearances (yes 70, according to planning commission's new manufacturing policy!) for starting a business, and fuse them into a 'single window clearance' achieved by our competitor nations. India's notorious red tape is mainly responsible for our 134th rank in World Bank's 'Doing Business' report. Every country protects its environment but none stops hundreds of projects in the process. 

Third, complete the good work already done to make the Goods and Services Tax (GST) a reality and India a national market. GST will replace the present nightmare of indirect taxes — state sales taxes, central sales tax, excise duty, service tax, entry tax, etc. Since it will tax only the added value at each stage, it will discourage cash transactions as no one wants to lose credit for taxes already paid. Compliance will rise, tax revenues will swell, black market will diminish, and peoples' morals will improve. 

Fourth, create masses of formal jobs by reforming senseless labour laws while creating a labour welfare fund (with contributions from employers and government ) to finance transitory unemployment and re-training. Companies have to survive in a downturn. When orders decline, either one cuts workers or goes bankrupt. Successful nations allow employers to 'hire and fire' but protect the laid off with a safety net. India's labour laws insist on lifetime jobs. Hence, Indian companies avoid hiring 'permanents' and 90% workers have ended up as 'informals' without a safety net. Protect workers, not jobs. 

More than half our people are stuck in agriculture and the fifth imperative is to create a second green revolution. To this end: A) Scrap 'agricultural produce marketing committees' (APMC) which function as wholesaler cartels in mandis. Opening markets will allow traders and farmers to buy and sell freely, making India into a national market. When large retailers buy from farmers, they will save food from rotting through cold-chains, raising returns to farmers and lowering prices to consumers. B) Discard the minimum support price system, which has created massive distortions — growing rice in water-scarce Punjab! — and destroyed the entrepreneurial dynamism of the Indian farmer. C) Reverse UPA government's damaging decision against genetically modified crops. Recall, Bt cotton doubled India's cotton production in five years and made us the world's largest exporter. D) Have a predictable export-import regime for farm products. Stop the present 'switch on, switch off ' policy which harms the farmer and brings disrepute to India. E) Remove the silly conditions that prevent global retailers from entering India. Those states that oppose FDI in retail will deny lower prices to consumers and higher returns to farmers. 

Sixth, sell off hotels, airlines, and all uncompetitive public sector enterprises, including banks, which have been bleeding the country for generations. Especially, break the monopoly of Coal India, which has made India — sitting on the world's third largest reserves — the largest coal importer in the world. 

Seventh, abolish all subsidies and replace them by cash transfers into the bank account of the female head of the household via mobile banking. NREGA, PDS, Food Corporation and all such leaky institutions must be phased out. As large sums are involved, employ the world's best practices to determine who is a deserving beneficiary. Finally, get rid of license raj in education to meet the insatiable demand for good schools. 

This is a big agenda but it is doable by an optimist leader who is competent in execution. He will give the bureaucracy a sense of purpose and propel India to achieve its potential.

 

Regards,
Shashi